Analysis of steel export situation in the second h

Analysis of steel export situation in the second half of 2008

although the Steel Association clarified the rumors of tariff increase at the first time, the steel export volume in may easily exceeded 5.5 million tons. It is estimated that the export volume in June will not be lower than that in May at least. According to the statistics of the customs, in the first five months of this year, China exported 21.72 million tons of steel and 110000 tons of billets, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% and 96.9% respectively. From the perspective of month on month analysis, steel exports in the first five months of this year showed a trend of monthly expansion. The high price in the international market has obviously formed a driving factor for the steel export in the domestic market. Therefore, blue whale steel studio believes that the trend of international steel prices in the second half of the year has a great impact on the domestic steel export situation

first, in the first five months of this year, domestic steel imports and exports both fell year-on-year, but showed an upward trend for several consecutive months. At the same time, the export structure is further inclined to plate, tube and strip, and this trend will not change in the second half of this year

1. In the first five months of this year, China imported 7.02 million tons of steel, exported 21.72 million tons of steel, and net imported 14.7 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 27.0%; A total of 80000 tons of steel billets were imported, 1.12 million tons of steel billets were exported, and the net export of steel billets was 30000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 99.1%. Blue whale steel studio believes that even the most conservative estimate is that under the situation that all countries in the world, especially developed countries, attach great importance to the development of the new material industry and the month on month increase in exports in May, it will make a continuous increase in the export situation in June

2. From the analysis of export structure, plate, tube and strip continue to increase, and the export proportion of long products shows a downward trend. In the first five months of this year, the export proportion of long timber was 28.5%, a decrease of 9.4 percentage points over the same period last year. The export volume of plate, pipe and strip was 14.09 million tons, and the export proportion was 64.9%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points over the same period last year; The import proportion of long materials was 8.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points, and the proportion of plate and pipe materials was 89.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year

-2.60%

from the perspective of export steel structure, the export volume of plate, tube and strip in the first five months of this year decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, while the export volume of long products decreased significantly, with the export volume decreased by 40.6%. The structure of imports has not changed much. Of the 7.02 million tons of imported steel in the month, nearly 90% is plate, tube and strip, and 8% is long wood. This proportion has basically not changed much from the same period last year

from the analysis of specific varieties, the most obvious decrease in export volume in recent days is narrow steel strip. The export volume of cold-rolled narrow steel strip and hot-rolled narrow steel strip decreased by 420000 tons and 549000 tons respectively year-on-year, with a year-on-year decrease of 86.3% and 78.0% respectively. The reduced export accounted for 969000 tons in total due to the large amount of external space, accounting for 5.1% of domestic output, accounting for 16.8% of the export reduction, and the elongation of some materials of all steels can be above 1000%; The export of steel bars also decreased by 83.0% year-on-year, and the export volume decreased by 2.817 million tons year-on-year, which is equivalent to 7.2% of the national steel bar output in the first five months; The export volume of wire rod decreased by 41.0% year-on-year, with a monthly export of 1.25 million tons, equivalent to 3.7% of the cumulative domestic wire rod output, and 21.7% of the export reduction of steel with a small export volume. In addition, the export volume of small and medium-sized section steel, cold-rolled sheet, coated plate, welded pipe, large section steel and thick steel plate also decreased significantly. The export volume of color coated board increased significantly, almost doubled, and the monthly cumulative export volume reached 757000 tons; Bars and cold-rolled thin and wide steel strips increased by% respectively, and medium plates, seamless tubes, Hot-rolled sheets and railway materials all increased significantly. 3. The price of exported steel has experienced a long period of rise. From March last year to May this year, it has basically realized the trend of rising month by month for 15 consecutive months (except October 2007)

the continuous upward trend of steel export prices last year is in contrast to the changes in steel export scale. From the change trend of export volume in the past four months of this year, export prices and export volume showed an upward trend. From the actual situation of price rise, it is obvious that the rise in the export price of long materials is stronger. The average export price of rod and wire rod in May was 861 US dollars/ton, an increase of 28% over the beginning of the year and 78% year-on-year; The average export price of angle profiles was 856 US dollars/ton, an increase of 27% over the beginning of the year and 72% year-on-year; The average export price of plate and strip is 959 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22% over the beginning of the year and 31% year-on-year; The average export price was US $1163/ton, up 12% from the beginning of the year and 31% year-on-year

31%

second, the international market is driven by strong factors. Steel prices in the United States, Europe and Asia have risen rapidly, driving domestic steel prices to continue to rise